In Taiwan, concerns about energy security centre on its heavy dependence on thermal power generated from imported fossil fuels, which is often described as the Achilles’ Heel in its security. According to statistics from the Energy Administration, in 2024, 39.3% of the electricity generation was from coal-fired, and 42.4% was from liquefied natural gas (LNG), all of which is imported. Renewables account for 11.6% of the share. Meanwhile, the government had set an energy transition target to have an energy mix containing 50% natural gas, 30% coal, and 20% renewables by 2025, making LNG the largest component of the energy portfolio. In response to this goal, the government plans to increase LNG reserves from the current 11-day supply to 14 days by 2027. However, Taiwan’s heavy reliance on LNG has emerged as a politically contentious issue, particularly in light of concerns that such dependence increases the nation’s vulnerability to price volatility driven by geopolitical developments, most notably, the potential risk of a maritime blockade imposed by China.
A closer examination of Taiwan’s energy security index (Table 1) over the past decade reveals only a marginal decline in its dependence on imported energy, dropping from 97.67% to 95.63%. This slight reduction can be attributed primarily to the expansion of renewable energy and the gradual contraction of the petrochemical sector. Nevertheless, the overall reliance on imported energy remains remarkably high. On average, imported energy accounts for 14.4% of the total national expenditures, with a peak of 18% in 2022, when global fuel prices surged due to the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
Because of Taiwan’s high reliance on imported energy and vulnerability to market volatility, energy security constitutes a critical concern for geopolitically sensitive Taiwan. Moreover, conventional strategies—such as diversifying import sources and relying on nuclear power as the ultimate solution—are insufficient in providing the resilience necessary to withstand rapid and unpredictable geopolitical disruptions. This article argues that renewable energy development provides a vital pathway to greater resilience for Taiwan, aligning with the growing recognition of energy transition as a critical component of national security, beyond its environmental imperative. This article addresses common misconceptions that hinder Taiwan’s energy transition and advocates strategic planning to navigate the evolving and unpredictable geopolitical landscape.
Table 1. Key Energy Security Indicators of Taiwan
| Year | Dependence on Imported-Energy(%) | Value of Energy Imports / Values of Total Imports(%) |
| 2015 | 97.67 | 15.36 |
| 2016 | 97.58 | 12.73 |
| 2017 | 97.70 | 14.86 |
| 2018 | 97.51 | 17.19 |
| 2019 | 97.28 | 15.12 |
| 2020 | 97.28 | 10.19 |
| 2021 | 97.19 | 12.53 |
| 2022 | 96.65 | 18.12 |
| 2023 | 96.20 | 15.83 |
| 2024 | 95.63 | 12.81 |
Source: Energy Administration, MOEA
Energy Transition is New National Security
The concept of “Energy transition is the new national security” has become prominent nowadays due to two primary factors: the urgent need to address climate change and extreme weather events, and the escalating concerns about national security. One game-changer is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The dramatic rise in EU fuel prices spurred significant renewables deployment in Europe. Countries see clean energy development as a means to end dependence on petrostate dictators like Russia. Clean energy becomes the key to both current energy security and future climate security. Some even argue that security concerns, rather than climate change, will become the main driver of the energy transition. Therefore, sovereign states are diversifying their energy mix across multiple sources to insulate themselves from geopolitical, macroeconomic, and financial risks.
A second cause is the rising issue of U.S. President Trump’s tariff war. With 74% of the world’s population living in fossil fuel-importing nations, a dependency historically shaped by the US-led geopolitics and oil-dominated markets, fossil fuels are used as trade bargaining chips by President Trump to balance the trade deficit. For example, the East Asian countries, including Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, were pressed to invest in the Alaska LNG project, and the EU is forced to modify the methane leakage standard of LNG imports. As the confidence in securing oil and gas erodes under Trump’s new trade order, policymakers will likely turn to their own domestic energy sources, which means renewables and electrification. Countries believe that the transition to clean energy could create a world that is less exposed to energy price shocks and trade risks than today.
The dependence on foreign and imported fossil fuels is an ever-growing concern for national security. Former U. S. Assistant Navy Secretary even claimed that a domestic clean energy deployment may be the greatest step to ensuring national security. Several EU think tanks had written an open letter to urge the European Commission to include green energy in increased security spending under the EU’s next seven-year “multi-annual financial framework”. Therefore, Taiwan should design its energy security strategy based on the new concept.
Taiwan’s Energy Security: Debunking Three Persistent Myths
Three persistent myths continue to cloud the debate about Taiwan’s energy security. First, Taiwan’s heavy reliance on energy imports renders it incapable of withstanding a Chinese blockade. Second, that dependence on Chinese-made clean technology undermines, rather than enhances, Taiwan’s energy security. And third, that a fundamental trade-off exists between food security and energy security, particularly regarding land use for renewable energy projects. These myths, though often repeated, fail under closer scrutiny.
In the wake of China’s latest military drills—where LNG terminals were explicitly identified as potential targets—Taiwan’s LNG reserves have become a political flashpoint. Critics argue that Taiwan’s energy transition strategy, which includes a move away from nuclear and towards renewables, weakens energy security. Much attention has been given to Taiwan’s LNG safety stock, typically enough for 11 to 14 days under normal consumption patterns. But this metric is misleading. In a blockade scenario, Taiwan’s total energy demand would likely fall sharply, potentially by half, as industrial exports grind to a halt. Under these conditions, Taiwan’s existing coal-fired power plants, combined with a growing portfolio of renewable energy, could sustain the island’s electricity needs for over a year.
Crucially, this energy transition depends on the rapid deployment of renewable resources. Some have questioned whether this strategy is viable, given China’s dominance in the global clean energy supply chain. Yet Taiwan retains significant domestic solar panel production capacity and has banned imports of Chinese-made solar modules since 2022. As for energy storage—a vital component of a flexible power grid—Taiwan is on track to boost domestic battery production to 13 GWh annually by 2027, enough to support its renewable energy ambitions.
Another common argument from sceptics is that Taiwan’s increasing dependence on food imports—now around 70%—poses a new vulnerability, particularly if utility-scale solar projects encroach on farmland. But this trade-off is overstated. Taiwan’s self-sufficiency rate for rice, its staple crop, remains at an impressive 98%, even with 6% of farmland currently left fallow. In fact, dedicating less than 10% of Taiwan’s cropland to solar projects could allow solar power to contribute a full third of the island’s electricity needs. Food security, in other words, is not at risk. Using it as a rhetorical weapon against renewable energy deployment is disingenuous at best.
Energy security in Taiwan is a serious issue that deserves a serious conversation. But clinging to outdated myths only serves to undermine thoughtful policymaking. Taiwan’s path to a resilient energy future runs through a realistic appraisal of its capabilities, not through fear-driven narratives detached from the facts.
A real tabletop exercise (TTX) on energy to formulate the solution
A tabletop exercise tackling Taiwan’s national security challenges is held annually by think tanks. These simulation exercises involved key stakeholders to discuss and analyse responses to potential and realistic scenarios, including regional security, Taiwan Strait crises, economic strategies, and energy stability challenges. Besides the threat from China, a TTX on energy transition is also needed in Taiwan to debunk the above myths.
U.S.-based think tank, the Centre for Climate and Security, had conducted tabletop exercises (TTX) in Japan and South Korea, respectively. The TTX is to advocate the concept “Clean energy is national security” by demonstrating the scenarios when facing disruptions from extreme climate events and change of geopolitics, how these events threaten the energy security of countries heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels. Scenarios modelled in these exercises include acute crises, such as a halving of fossil fuel imports due to the militarisation of the Taiwan Strait, as well as chronic or non-acute crises like the compounding effects of climate change that risk compromising critical infrastructures essential to national defence and public security.
Importantly, the exercises do not portray a clean energy transition as risk-free. Participants are made aware of new vulnerabilities emerging from the shift to clean energy, particularly the current global dependence on China for critical mineral supply chains used in clean technology production. While this dependence may be less immediately destabilising and more easily mitigated than the reliance on a constant flow of fossil fuels, it still presents strategic risks to long-term national security. These concerns have also been raised by countries such as the U.S, Japan, and organisations such as NATO and the EU.
Nonetheless, the challenge of supply chain dependency can be addressed through targeted innovation and strategic planning. Advances in technology, such as the development of cobalt-free or nickel-free batteries, offer viable alternatives to current supply chain constraints. Furthermore, building democratic and diversified supply chains—anchored in cooperation with like-minded partners—offers a pragmatic path forward. Sourcing critical materials from a broader range of geopolitical allies can significantly reduce systemic risk.
Conducting a TTX specifically focused on energy transition would provide Taiwan with a strategic opportunity to assess its vulnerabilities and strengths under various clean energy adoption scenarios. Such an exercise would not only help identify critical gaps in infrastructure and policy but would also support a more integrated approach to enhancing both national and energy security in the context of global decarbonisation.
Yun-Ling KO is a researcher at the Taiwan Climate Action Network (TCAN) with 7 years of experience working in the renewable energy industry. She holds an MA and BA from National Taiwan University.
Dr Chia-wei Chao is the Research Director of the Taiwan Climate Action Network (TCAN) and an Adjunct Assistant Professor at National Taiwan University’s Program in Climate Change and Sustainable Development.
The article is published as part of a joint issue “Green Synergies: Sustainability, Security and Taiwan-Europe Collaboration” between CHOICE and Taiwan Insight.
